Long-term future prediction under uncertainty and multi-modality

Humans have an innate ability to excel at activities that involve prediction of complex object dynamics such as predicting the possible trajectory of a billiard ball after it has been hit by the player or the prediction of motion of pedestrians while on the road. A key feature that enables humans to perform such tasks is anticipation. There has been continuous research in the area of Computer Vision and Artificial Intelligence to mimic this human ability for autonomous agents to succeed in the real world scenarios. Recent advances in the field of deep learning and the availability of large scale datasets has enabled the pursuit of fully autonomous agents with complex decision making abilities such as self-driving vehicles or robots. One of the main challenges encompassing the deployment of these agents in the real world is their ability to perform anticipation tasks with at least human level efficiency. To advance the field of autonomous systems, particularly, self-driving agents, in this thesis, we focus on the task of future prediction in diverse real world settings, ranging from deterministic scenarios such as prediction of paths of balls on a billiard table to the predicting the future of non-deterministic street scenes. Specifically, we identify certain core challenges for long-term future prediction: long-term prediction, uncertainty, multi-modality, and exact inference. To address these challenges, this thesis makes the following core contributions. Firstly, for accurate long-term predictions, we develop approaches that effectively utilize available observed information in the form of image boundaries in videos or interactions in street scenes. Secondly, as uncertainty increases into the future in case of non-deterministic scenarios, we leverage Bayesian inference frameworks to capture calibrated distributions of likely future events. Finally, to further improve performance in highly-multimodal non-deterministic scenarios such as street scenes, we develop deep generative models based on conditional variational autoencoders as well as normalizing flow based exact inference methods. Furthermore, we introduce a novel dataset with dense pedestrian-vehicle interactions to further aid the development of anticipation methods for autonomous driving applications in urban environments.Menschen haben die angeborene Fähigkeit, Vorgänge mit komplexer Objektdynamik vorauszusehen, wie z. B. die Vorhersage der möglichen Flugbahn einer Billardkugel, nachdem sie vom Spieler gestoßen wurde, oder die Vorhersage der Bewegung von Fußgängern auf der Straße. Eine Schlüsseleigenschaft, die es dem Menschen ermöglicht, solche Aufgaben zu erfüllen, ist die Antizipation. Im Bereich der Computer Vision und der Künstlichen Intelligenz wurde kontinuierlich daran geforscht, diese menschliche Fähigkeit nachzuahmen, damit autonome Agenten in der realen Welt erfolgreich sein können. Jüngste Fortschritte auf dem Gebiet des Deep Learning und die Verfügbarkeit großer Datensätze haben die Entwicklung vollständig autonomer Agenten mit komplexen Entscheidungsfähigkeiten wie selbstfahrende Fahrzeugen oder Roboter ermöglicht. Eine der größten Herausforderungen beim Einsatz dieser Agenten in der realen Welt ist ihre Fähigkeit, Antizipationsaufgaben mit einer Effizienz durchzuführen, die mindestens der menschlichen entspricht. Um das Feld der autonomen Systeme, insbesondere der selbstfahrenden Agenten, voranzubringen, konzentrieren wir uns in dieser Arbeit auf die Aufgabe der Zukunftsvorhersage in verschiedenen realen Umgebungen, die von deterministischen Szenarien wie der Vorhersage der Bahnen von Kugeln auf einem Billardtisch bis zur Vorhersage der Zukunft von nicht-deterministischen Straßenszenen reichen. Insbesondere identifizieren wir bestimmte grundlegende Herausforderungen für langfristige Zukunftsvorhersagen: Langzeitvorhersage, Unsicherheit, Multimodalität und exakte Inferenz. Um diese Herausforderungen anzugehen, leistet diese Arbeit die folgenden grundlegenden Beiträge. Erstens: Für genaue Langzeitvorhersagen entwickeln wir Ansätze, die verfügbare Beobachtungsinformationen in Form von Bildgrenzen in Videos oder Interaktionen in Straßenszenen effektiv nutzen. Zweitens: Da die Unsicherheit in der Zukunft bei nicht-deterministischen Szenarien zunimmt, nutzen wir Bayes’sche Inferenzverfahren, um kalibrierte Verteilungen wahrscheinlicher zukünftiger Ereignisse zu erfassen. Drittens: Um die Leistung in hochmultimodalen, nichtdeterministischen Szenarien wie Straßenszenen weiter zu verbessern, entwickeln wir tiefe generative Modelle, die sowohl auf konditionalen Variations-Autoencodern als auch auf normalisierenden fließenden exakten Inferenzmethoden basieren. Darüber hinaus stellen wir einen neuartigen Datensatz mit dichten Fußgänger-Fahrzeug- Interaktionen vor, um Antizipationsmethoden für autonome Fahranwendungen in urbanen Umgebungen weiter zu entwickeln

Entanglement entropy in higher derivative holography

We consider holographic entanglement entropy in higher derivative gravity theories. Recently Lewkowycz and Maldacena arXiv:1304.4926 have provided a method to derive the equations for the entangling surface from first principles. We use this method to compute the entangling surface in four derivative gravity. Certain interesting differences compared to the two derivative case are pointed out. For Gauss-Bonnet gravity, we show that in the regime where this method is applicable, the resulting equations coincide with proposals in the literature as well as with what follows from considerations of the stress tensor on the entangling surface. Finally we demonstrate that the area functional in Gauss-Bonnet holography arises as a counterterm needed to make the Euclidean action free of power law divergences.Comment: 24 pages, 1 figure. v3: typos corrected, published versio

Spatio-Temporal Image Boundary Extrapolation

Boundary prediction in images as well as video has been a very active topic of research and organizing visual information into boundaries and segments is believed to be a corner stone of visual perception. While prior work has focused on predicting boundaries for observed frames, our work aims at predicting boundaries of future unobserved frames. This requires our model to learn about the fate of boundaries and extrapolate motion patterns. We experiment on established real-world video segmentation dataset, which provides a testbed for this new task. We show for the first time spatio-temporal boundary extrapolation in this challenging scenario. Furthermore, we show long-term prediction of boundaries in situations where the motion is governed by the laws of physics. We successfully predict boundaries in a billiard scenario without any assumptions of a strong parametric model or any object notion. We argue that our model has with minimalistic model assumptions derived a notion of 'intuitive physics' that can be applied to novel scenes

Long-Term On-Board Prediction of People in Traffic Scenes under Uncertainty

Progress towards advanced systems for assisted and autonomous driving is leveraging recent advances in recognition and segmentation methods. Yet, we are still facing challenges in bringing reliable driving to inner cities, as those are composed of highly dynamic scenes observed from a moving platform at considerable speeds. Anticipation becomes a key element in order to react timely and prevent accidents. In this paper we argue that it is necessary to predict at least 1 second and we thus propose a new model that jointly predicts ego motion and people trajectories over such large time horizons. We pay particular attention to modeling the uncertainty of our estimates arising from the non-deterministic nature of natural traffic scenes. Our experimental results show that it is indeed possible to predict people trajectories at the desired time horizons and that our uncertainty estimates are informative of the prediction error. We also show that both sequence modeling of trajectories as well as our novel method of long term odometry prediction are essential for best performance.Comment: CVPR 201

Long-Term Image Boundary Prediction

Boundary estimation in images and videos has been a very active topic of research, and organizing visual information into boundaries and segments is believed to be a corner stone of visual perception. While prior work has focused on estimating boundaries for observed frames, our work aims at predicting boundaries of future unobserved frames. This requires our model to learn about the fate of boundaries and corresponding motion patterns -- including a notion of "intuitive physics". We experiment on natural video sequences along with synthetic sequences with deterministic physics-based and agent-based motions. While not being our primary goal, we also show that fusion of RGB and boundary prediction leads to improved RGB predictions.Comment: Accepted in the AAAI Conference for Artificial Intelligence, 201

Constraining gravity using entanglement in AdS/CFT

We investigate constraints imposed by entanglement on gravity in the context of holography. First, by demanding that relative entropy is positive and using the Ryu-Takayanagi entropy functional, we find certain constraints at a nonlinear level for the dual gravity. Second, by considering Gauss-Bonnet gravity, we show that for a class of small perturbations around the vacuum state, the positivity of the two point function of the field theory stress tensor guarantees the positivity of the relative entropy. Further, if we impose that the entangling surface closes off smoothly in the bulk interior, we find restrictions on the coupling constant in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. We also give an example of an anisotropic excited state in an unstable phase with broken conformal invariance which leads to a negative relative entropy.Comment: 36 pages, 3 figures, v4: fig 1 modifie

Accurate and Diverse Sampling of Sequences based on a "Best of Many" Sample Objective

For autonomous agents to successfully operate in the real world, anticipation of future events and states of their environment is a key competence. This problem has been formalized as a sequence extrapolation problem, where a number of observations are used to predict the sequence into the future. Real-world scenarios demand a model of uncertainty of such predictions, as predictions become increasingly uncertain -- in particular on long time horizons. While impressive results have been shown on point estimates, scenarios that induce multi-modal distributions over future sequences remain challenging. Our work addresses these challenges in a Gaussian Latent Variable model for sequence prediction. Our core contribution is a "Best of Many" sample objective that leads to more accurate and more diverse predictions that better capture the true variations in real-world sequence data. Beyond our analysis of improved model fit, our models also empirically outperform prior work on three diverse tasks ranging from traffic scenes to weather data.Comment: Added additional references and baselines. (Appeared in CVPR 2018

Painter: Teaching Auto-regressive Language Models to Draw Sketches

Large language models (LLMs) have made tremendous progress in natural language understanding and they have also been successfully adopted in other domains such as computer vision, robotics, reinforcement learning, etc. In this work, we apply LLMs to image generation tasks by directly generating the virtual brush strokes to paint an image. We present Painter, an LLM that can convert user prompts in text description format to sketches by generating the corresponding brush strokes in an auto-regressive way. We construct Painter based on off-the-shelf LLM that is pre-trained on a large text corpus, by fine-tuning it on the new task while preserving language understanding capabilities. We create a dataset of diverse multi-object sketches paired with textual prompts that covers several object types and tasks. Painter can generate sketches from text descriptions, remove objects from canvas, and detect and classify objects in sketches. Although this is an unprecedented pioneering work in using LLMs for auto-regressive image generation, the results are very encouraging

Efficiently Summarising Event Sequences with Rich Interleaving Patterns

Discovering the key structure of a database is one of the main goals of data mining. In pattern set mining we do so by discovering a small set of patterns that together describe the data well. The richer the class of patterns we consider, and the more powerful our description language, the better we will be able to summarise the data. In this paper we propose \ourmethod, a novel greedy MDL-based method for summarising sequential data using rich patterns that are allowed to interleave. Experiments show \ourmethod is orders of magnitude faster than the state of the art, results in better models, as well as discovers meaningful semantics in the form patterns that identify multiple choices of values